California's 45th District margin of victory
The outcome depends on Tran's margin of victory in California's 45th congressional district.
Kalshi$136 traded 24hEnds Nov 3, 2027Outcomes
Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Last 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tran, 10+ pts | 70% | — | 73¢ | |
| Tran, 4+ pts | 89% | — | 92.7¢ | |
| Tran, 7+ pts | 80% | — | 85¢ | |
| Tran, 13+ pts | 57% | — | 62¢ | |
| Tran, 16+ pts | 47% | — | 52¢ | |
| Tran, 19+ pts | 33% | — | 38¢ | |
| Tran, 22+ pts | 19% | — | 24¢ | |
| Tran, 25+ pts | 6% | — | 11¢ | |
| Tran, 28+ pts | 4% | — | 7.8¢ |
Tran, 10+ pts
70%
—Yes price on Kalshi, last 2 weeks
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