Edge from history
How often settled markets at each price actually resolved Yes, by venue, category and how long before close the price was taken. Kalshi comes from its own archive; Polymarket from imported history. Where a band ran cheap or rich, it shows by how much, and on which venue.
−8¢
Markets at 80–90¢ a week out resolved Yes 77% of the time, so Yes was rich by about 8¢. (355 markets)
+6¢
Markets at 10–20¢ a week out resolved Yes 21% of the time, so Yes was cheap by about 6¢. (1,006 markets)
+5¢
Markets at 20–30¢ a week out resolved Yes 30% of the time, so Yes was cheap by about 5¢. (1,322 markets)
- History, not a forecast. Past pricing gaps can close.
Every band, a week before close
Markets priced around 3¢ a week before close resolved Yes 3% of the time, across 2,985 settled markets. The price tracked the outcome closely here.
- $100 on Yes, every time
- +$34
- $100 on No, every time
- −$1
- Average price
- 3¢
- Resolved Yes
- 3%
Before fees, and at the average price of the band rather than the price you would have been shown. History, not a forecast.
Markets priced around 15¢ a week before close resolved Yes 21% of the time, across 1,006 settled markets. Yes was cheap here by about 6¢.
- $100 on Yes, every time
- +$39
- $100 on No, every time
- −$7
- Average price
- 15¢
- Resolved Yes
- 21%
Before fees, and at the average price of the band rather than the price you would have been shown. History, not a forecast.
Markets priced around 25¢ a week before close resolved Yes 30% of the time, across 1,322 settled markets. Yes was cheap here by about 5¢.
- $100 on Yes, every time
- +$22
- $100 on No, every time
- −$7
- Average price
- 25¢
- Resolved Yes
- 30%
Before fees, and at the average price of the band rather than the price you would have been shown. History, not a forecast.
Markets priced around 35¢ a week before close resolved Yes 40% of the time, across 1,261 settled markets. Yes was cheap here by about 5¢.
- $100 on Yes, every time
- +$15
- $100 on No, every time
- −$8
- Average price
- 35¢
- Resolved Yes
- 40%
Before fees, and at the average price of the band rather than the price you would have been shown. History, not a forecast.
Markets priced around 45¢ a week before close resolved Yes 45% of the time, across 2,025 settled markets. The price tracked the outcome closely here.
- $100 on Yes, every time
- −$0
- $100 on No, every time
- +$0
- Average price
- 45¢
- Resolved Yes
- 45%
Before fees, and at the average price of the band rather than the price you would have been shown. History, not a forecast.
Markets priced around 53¢ a week before close resolved Yes 50% of the time, across 1,480 settled markets. Yes was rich here by about 4¢.
- $100 on Yes, every time
- −$7
- $100 on No, every time
- +$8
- Average price
- 53¢
- Resolved Yes
- 50%
Before fees, and at the average price of the band rather than the price you would have been shown. History, not a forecast.
Markets priced around 65¢ a week before close resolved Yes 61% of the time, across 772 settled markets. Yes was rich here by about 3¢.
- $100 on Yes, every time
- −$5
- $100 on No, every time
- +$9
- Average price
- 65¢
- Resolved Yes
- 61%
Before fees, and at the average price of the band rather than the price you would have been shown. History, not a forecast.
Markets priced around 75¢ a week before close resolved Yes 74% of the time, across 577 settled markets. The price tracked the outcome closely here.
- $100 on Yes, every time
- −$1
- $100 on No, every time
- +$3
- Average price
- 75¢
- Resolved Yes
- 74%
Before fees, and at the average price of the band rather than the price you would have been shown. History, not a forecast.
Markets priced around 85¢ a week before close resolved Yes 77% of the time, across 355 settled markets. Yes was rich here by about 8¢.
- $100 on Yes, every time
- −$9
- $100 on No, every time
- +$49
- Average price
- 85¢
- Resolved Yes
- 77%
Before fees, and at the average price of the band rather than the price you would have been shown. History, not a forecast.
Markets priced around 96¢ a week before close resolved Yes 94% of the time, across 482 settled markets. The price tracked the outcome closely here.
- $100 on Yes, every time
- −$2
- $100 on No, every time
- +$43
- Average price
- 96¢
- Resolved Yes
- 94%
Before fees, and at the average price of the band rather than the price you would have been shown. History, not a forecast.