Accuracy
Every relation Routeur proves is a claim about how two markets settle. This page is the record of whether those claims held, per relation type and proof family, and how a hand-checked sample was judged. Refreshed every half hour.
No proven relation has been checked against a settled outcome yet.
By relation type and proof family
Checked means both markets settled Yes or No. The interval is a 95% Wilson interval on the violation rate.
Before economics leads become executable
What has to happen for a lead on an economic relation to be offered as more than information.
Kalshi and Polymarket settle a delayed or cancelled economic release by different rules, so leads on those relations are shown but marked informational. A proof family is released for executable leads only when at least 25 of its relations have been checked against settled outcomes and either none was violated or the upper bound of its violation rate is under 1.0%. The grapher reads the released set at the start of every run.
Economic relations across venues: no pair has settled on both venues yet, so the family is not released.
How we measure
In plain words. The docs carry the same, with the arithmetic.
Every relation carries its proof trail: /v1/relations/{venue}/{market}/{venue}/{market} shows the steps, and …/verification whether it held at settlement. Read the methodology