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When will the next US recession start?

This market resolves based on the start date of the next recession in the United States.

KalshiKalshi$0 traded 24hEnds Dec 31, 2026

Outcomes

Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted

OutcomeChance24hKalshiKalshi
Q1 20263%6.2¢
Q4 20253%4.7¢
Q4 20242%3.1¢
Q2 20252%3.1¢
Q3 20252%2.9¢
Q1 20251%0.9¢

Q1 2026

3%

Yes price on Kalshi, last 2 weeks

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