When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
The market resolves based on the year the first useful quantum computer is developed.
KalshiEnds Dec 31, 2026Outcomes
Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Last 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2040 | 60% | — | 62¢ | |
| Before 2035 | 51% | — | 51.9¢ | |
| Before 2030 | 35% | — | 36¢ | |
| Before 2027 | 3% | — | 4.9¢ |
Before 2040
60%
—Yes price on Kalshi, last 2 weeks
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