Will Paul Kagame leave office next in this set?

If the President of Rwanda is the first leader among the above to leave office, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that a leader will leave their position is not sufficient to resolve the Payout Criterion; the individual must actually leave and no longer hold the title. If any leader leaves solely because they have died, then all markets will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death) or another fair price.