Will AfD finish 2nd in the 2026 Berlin state election?

If AfD finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Berlin state election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For proportional representation: rank follows the electoral authority's final seat allocation order In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. The party awarded the 2nd-highest number of Abgeordnetenhaus seats in the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin's final certified seat allocation resolves YES. Resolution follows the final certified result, not the preliminary count published on election night. Rank is the party's position when all parties are ordered by descending certified seat total. Where two or more parties are tied, they are treated as tied at the higher rank and the next distinct seat total takes the rank immediately below the tied block, so ranks are skipped rather than shared. For this event all ranks are determined solely by the certified seat allocation, including for a party that withdraws but remains on the ballot. Only the election to the Abgeordnetenhaus counts. Seats won in the district assembly (Bezirksverordnetenversammlung) elections held the same day do NOT count.