Will the median first-year associate base salary for the largest law-firm-size category in 2027 be above $225,000?

If the the median first-year associate base salary for the largest law-firm-size category in the 2027 U.S. Associate Salary Survey is above $225,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the national median first-year associate base salary reported for the largest law-firm-size category in NALP’s 2027 U.S. Associate Salary Survey. “Largest law-firm-size category” means the category in NALP’s national firm-size breakdown with the highest minimum number of lawyers. For example, the largest category in the 2025 survey was firms with more than 700 lawyers. If NALP changes its firm-size categories in the 2027 survey, the largest category reported by NALP will be used. Resolution will use base salary only. Bonuses, benefits, summer-associate compensation, clerkship bonuses, total compensation, and inflation adjustments will not be considered. The median reported by NALP will be used without independent recalculation or rounding. Resolution will use the first official NALP publication that reports the applicable 2027 median. Later revisions or corrections will not affect resolution.