Will HDZ coalition finish 3rd in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election?

If HDZ BiH, HSP BiH, HKDU, HSP AS, HDU, HSP HB, HRAST finishes in 3rd place in the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Representatives election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method. For proportional representation, rank follows the electoral authority’s final seat allocation order. Total seats in the 42-member House of Representatives count: 28 Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina seats and 14 Republika Srpska seats, including constituency and compensatory mandates. The Central Election Commission’s final certified seat allocation controls. Each certified party or joint list counts as one entity. Its seats across both entities are combined; separate lists are not combined for post-election coalitions. In case of exact ties for 3rd place, markets resolve proportionally ($1 divided by the number of tied entities, rounded down). An unlisted party or coalition achieving the specified rank resolves all named markets to No. Candidates or parties who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on their certified results. The full rules govern cancellation, postponement and unavailable certified results.