Will União Progressista hold 1st seats in Senate after the 2026 Brazilian Senate Election?

If União Progressista holds the most total seats in the Brazilian Senate following the 2026 Brazilian Senate Election, then the market resolves to Yes. Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. A seat is won when the candidate is declared elected by the electoral authority and either the challenge period has expired, legal challenges are resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is based on the party under which the candidate was elected, regardless of later changes. In case of ties for a rank, all tied parties at that rank resolve to Yes with values split proportionally. If a ranking is skipped due to ties (e.g., two parties tie for #1, next is #3), markets for the skipped rank (#2) resolve to No.