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KalshiKalshi· Crypto

Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?

Pays out if the result is below 40,000.

Chance

10%

Buy Yes

10¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

91¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 2 minutes ago. Ends Jan 1, 5:00 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Related markets

Latest trades

  • 2 hours agoSold yes at 10¢$83
  • 3 hours agoSold yes at 10¢$94
  • 8 hours agoSold yes at 10¢$5
  • 8 hours agoSold yes at 10¢$4
  • 15 hours agoBought no at 91¢$1
  • 18 hours agoBought no at 91¢$91
  • 18 hours agoBought no at 91¢$137
  • 18 hours agoSold yes at 10¢$16
  • 19 hours agoSold yes at 10¢$57
  • 22 hours agoSold yes at 10¢$94
How this market is decidedShow

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is below $40000.00 starting Feb 5, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.