Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 115,000?

If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 115,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents issued. It includes units in single-family and multifamily structures. Resolution uses the first U.S. Census Bureau state-level release containing complete January–December 2026 data; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution.