Kalshi· Economics

Will California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 be above 419.85?

Pays out if the result is above 419.85.

Chance

19%

Buy Yes

20¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

81¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 14 seconds ago. Ends Feb 23, 1:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks

Cost of a Yes share

How this market is decidedShow

If California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 is above 419.85, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the index_sa value for California (CA), year 2026, quarter 4, in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s quarterly state Purchase-Only House Price Index dataset. This is a Q4-over-Q4 comparison, not an annual average. The 419.85 baseline is fixed to the Q4 2025 value at Issuance; later revisions to Q4 2025 do not change the strike.