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KalshiKalshi· Economics

Will the decline in Canadian-resident return trips from the United States for 2026 be above 20%?

Pays out if the result is above 20.

Chance

14%

Buy Yes

14¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

87¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 15 minutes ago. Ends Feb 23, 1:29 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 1 hour agoSold yes at 14¢$2
  • 2 hours agoBought no at 85¢$0
  • 2 hours agoBought no at 86¢$17
  • 2 hours agoBought no at 86¢$4
  • 3 hours agoBought no at 83¢$0
  • 5 hours agoBought no at 83¢$46
  • 5 hours agoSold yes at 18¢$1
  • 9 hours agoSold yes at 17¢$1
  • 9 hours agoSold yes at 16¢$0
  • 9 hours agoSold yes at 16¢$2
How this market is decidedShow

If Statistics Canada reports that the decline in Canadian-resident return trips from the United States for 2026 is greater than 20% compared with 2025 in its "Travel between Canada and other countries, December 2026" release, then the market resolves to Yes. The relevant figure is the full-year 2026 year-over-year percentage change for “Canadian-resident return trips from the United States,” as stated in Statistics Canada’s release text or related tables. If Statistics Canada does not publish a full-year percentage-change figure for 2026, the market will resolve using the percentage change calculated from Statistics Canada’s annual table for the same series.