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Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?

Pays out if the result is above 2.

Chance

19%

Buy Yes

19¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

82¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$131

as Kalshi reports it · 22 fills

Spread

1¢

round trip

Prices from Kalshi, updated 15 minutes ago. Ends Jul 1, 2:00 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share
Order book
Live from the venue feed · updated 9 minutes ago

Buy Yes (bids)

  • 18¢151$27
  • 17¢399$68
  • 16¢1,914$306
  • 15¢2,221$333
  • 14¢3,289$460

Sell Yes (asks)

  • 19¢7$1
  • 20¢1,195$239
  • 22¢555$122
  • 23¢1,081$249
  • 24¢1,654$397
Spread
1¢
Mid
18.5¢
Microprice
19¢
Within 5¢
$1.3K · $3.5K
More money on NoImbalance -45%More money on Yes

Latest trades

  • 1 hour agoBought no at 82¢$1
  • 1 hour agoBought no at 82¢$1
  • 6 hours agoSold yes at 20¢$5
  • 6 hours agoSold yes at 20¢$0
  • 6 hours agoSold yes at 20¢$0
  • 6 hours agoSold yes at 20¢$2
  • 6 hours agoSold yes at 19¢$0
  • 6 hours agoBought no at 82¢$2
  • 6 hours agoBought no at 82¢$4
  • 6 hours agoBought no at 82¢$2

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by BLS, Zillow, FRED, BEA, The Source Agencies are. Contract terms (PDF)

If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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