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Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.7% for the year ending in November 2026?

Pays out if the result is above 3.7.

Chance

51%

Buy Yes

56¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

55¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$165

as Kalshi reports it · 4 fills

Spread

11¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 10 minutes ago. Ends Dec 10, 1:29 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 20 hours agoSold yes at 54¢$2
  • 20 hours agoBought no at 57¢$14
  • 20 hours agoBought no at 57¢$71
  • 20 hours agoBought no at 56¢$7
  • yesterdayBought no at 39¢$20
  • yesterdayBought no at 37¢$18
  • yesterdayBought no at 36¢$10
  • yesterdaySold yes at 71¢$14
  • yesterdayBought no at 36¢$8
  • 2 days agoBought no at 39¢$8

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by Bureau of Labor Statistics. Contract terms (PDF)

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.7% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes. In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown

Rule history

  1. Changed: rules text, strikeRules text changed (+1 −2 lines); structured strike changed. · Show diff
    --- rules@c66085d5c203
    +++ rules@85b4a906d833
    @@ -1,4 +1,3 @@
     If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.7% in the twelve months ending November 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.
     
    -In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the
    -government shutdown
    +In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market’s latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown
  2. First recorded

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