Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court before Jan 1, 2027?

If Alexandre de Moraes leaves as Justice of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Alexandre de Moraes must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure and the natural expiration of a term. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If Alexandre de Moraes vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract shall settle on the initial vacation of the role.