Kalshi· Climate and Weather

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Pays out if the result is above 0.

Chance

73%

Buy Yes

73.9¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

27.2¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 46 seconds ago. Ends Jan 1, 4:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks

Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

1 hour agoSold yes at 73.8¢$1
2 hours agoSold yes at 73.6¢$12
2 hours agoSold yes at 73.7¢$11
2 hours agoSold yes at 73.9¢$11
2 hours agoSold yes at 73.6¢$1
2 hours agoSold yes at 74¢$7
2 hours agoSold yes at 73.7¢$13
2 hours agoSold yes at 73.6¢$12
2 hours agoSold yes at 74¢$4
2 hours agoSold yes at 75¢$9

How this market is decidedShow

If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027