Will Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for 2026 be above 10.0 million?

If the Hawaii’s total visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026 is above 10.0 million, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is total statewide visitor arrivals for calendar year 2026, including visitors arriving by air and visitors arriving aboard out-of-state cruise ships, as reported by the State of Hawaii. It does not use visitor days, average daily census, airport passenger throughput, or arrivals to an individual island. Visitors who fly to Hawaii to board a cruise ship are already included in air arrivals and are not separately added again. Resolution uses the first publication containing complete January–December 2026 data; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution. DBEDT’s 2025 total, for example, was 9,642,991 = 9,493,213 by air + 149,778 by cruise ship.