Will the margin of victory for Green Party in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election be at least 12%?

If the margin of victory for Green Party in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election is at or above 12%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Green Party minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Green Party if Green Party wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Green Party loses. If Green Party wins, the margin will be positive; if Green Party loses, the margin will be negative; if Green Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. No rounding is applied. Each threshold includes its lower bound and the maximum possible margin of 100 percentage points. An exact tie for first that remains unresolved by expiration receives the proportional payout specified in the full rules for every range containing zero; other ranges resolve No. Certified results, the Fully-Conducted Elections provision, and accelerated resolution apply as specified in the full rules.