Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election be at least 25%?

If the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election is at or above 25%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by Labour minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Labour if Labour wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Labour loses. If Labour wins, the margin will be positive; if Labour loses, the margin will be negative; if Labour ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. No rounding is applied. Each threshold includes its lower bound and the maximum possible margin of 100 percentage points. An exact tie for first that remains unresolved by expiration receives the proportional payout specified in the full rules for every range containing zero; other ranges resolve No. Certified results, the Fully-Conducted Elections provision, and accelerated resolution apply as specified in the full rules.