Will Reform UK finish 2nd in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

If Reform UK finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on vote count or percentage In case of an exact tie for second place, markets resolve to $1/(number of tied entities), rounded down. A write-in candidate achieving the specified rank resolves all named candidate or party markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" market exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Resolution follows the London Borough of Camden's final certified result, not preliminary election-night results. If an unlisted party or independent finishes second, every listed market resolves NO. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve NO.