Will Reform UK receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Reform UK in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election is 20% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is (votes received by the party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded. Except as provided in the Fully-Conducted Elections provision, use certified/official results; qualifying unofficial results may be used only under that provision. Write-in votes in the result are included. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds occur, use the specified round or first round if none is specified. If voting is cancelled, suspended, or postponed before it concludes, or no certified or qualifying unofficial results are available by the Expiration Date, resolve NO, except as provided in Fully-Conducted Elections. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, use the most recent certified percentage.