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Will the S&P 500 Index outperform the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index?

Chance

39%

Buy Yes

47¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

70¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

—

as Kalshi reports it

Spread

17¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 15 minutes ago. Ends Jan 1, 4:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by CNBC, Dow Jones Newswires, the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Barron's, the Associated Press, Reuters. Contract terms (PDF)

If S&P 500 Index performs above S&P 500 Equal Weight Index during 2026 by 0.001% rounded to the nearest 3rd then the market resolves to Yes. Percent return is calculated from the official open price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if the S&P 500 Index opens at $5,800 on January 2, 2026 and at $6,380 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 is +10.000%.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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