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Who will win the next Lebanese general election?

Chance

2%

Buy Yes

4.4¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

99.9¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

—

as Kalshi reports it

Spread

4¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 12 minutes ago. Ends May 11, 3:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by Ministry of Interior and Municipalities, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction; the formal proclamation by the head of state or government when constitutionally required; for religious elections, in hierarchical order: Primary Sources: the official electoral commission, constitutional court. Contract terms (PDF)

If the winner of the next Lebanese general election is Tashnag, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. Postponed elections: Contract remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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