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Will U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY in any quarter for 2026 be above 3%?

Pays out if the result is above 3.

Chance

49%

Buy Yes

51¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

54¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

—

as Kalshi reports it

Spread

5¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 10 minutes ago. Ends Mar 4, 1:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index. Contract terms (PDF)

If U.S. nonfarm business sector labor productivity year-over-year growth is above 3% in any quarter of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only the first non-preliminary release for each quarter will be considered. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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