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KalshiKalshi· Politics

What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?

Chance

16%

Buy Yes

17¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

84¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 2 minutes ago. Ends Jan 1, 3:00 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share
How this market is decidedShow

If the National Guard is deployed to Houston after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Deployment means National Guard members arrive in Houston on official deployment orders, under State Active Duty (SAD), Title 32, or Title 10 activation, for operational missions (not routine training), with actual presence in Houston, not merely assigned or in transit. The following constitutes deployment and resolves **YES**: - Governor activates Guard with deployment to Houston - Guard units arrive in Houston on emergency orders - Federal activation placing Guard in Houston - Inter-state Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) deployment to Houston - Pre-positioned Guard units activated for operations in Houston - Any number of Guard members (even one) officially deployed The following does NOT constitute deployment and resolves **NO**: - Deployment announcements without actual arrival - Guard placed on standby/alert status only - Units staged outside Houston without entering - Training exercises or routine drills - Guard members traveling through Houston to another destination - Planning/assessment teams without follow-on deployment - Off-duty Guard members acting as civilians - Guard at permanent facilities (armories) not on deployment orders - Recruitment or community relations activities - Canceled deployments that never materialize Special provisions: - At least one Guard member must physically arrive in Houston. - Deployment must be for operational purposes, not training. - If deployment is announced then canceled before arrival, resolves NO. - Presence for transit only doesn't count. - Re-deployment of already-present units to new locations within Houston counts only if they were not previously on deployment orders. - Both Army National Guard and Air National Guard deployments count. - Federal military (non-Guard) deployments do not count.