Will US personal saving rate for 2026 be at least 4.0%?

If the US personal saving rate for 2026 is at least 4.0%, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by Federal Reserve Economic Data, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, “personal saving rate” refers to FRED series PSAVERT, Personal Saving Rate, for December 2026. This value is reported as a percent, seasonally adjusted annual rate, and is sourced by FRED from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will use the first value published by Federal Reserve Economic Data for December 2026. Revisions released after the first publication of the December 2026 value will not be considered.