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KalshiKalshi· Economics

Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator trigger in 2026?

Pays out if the result is 0.5 or more.

Chance

10%

Buy Yes

11¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

92¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 24 seconds ago. Ends Jan 8, 1:29 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share
How this market is decidedShow

If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first published value for the applicable monthly observation in FRED series SAHMREALTIME. Revisions to previously published values will not be considered. The market does not depend on whether the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession. A value exactly equal to 0.50 qualifies.