Will Christian Democrats finish 4th in the 2026 Swedish general election?

If Christian Democrats finishes in 4th place in the 2026 Swedish general election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. For proportional representation systems, 4th place is determined by the party list order as specified by the electoral authority's final seat allocation. The party awarded the 4th-highest number of Riksdag seats in Valmyndigheten's final, certified distribution of mandates (mandatfördelning) resolves YES; every other listed party resolves NO Rank is NOT determined by national vote share. Where seat rank and vote-share rank differ, the certified seat allocation governs Resolution follows the final certified result, not the preliminary count published on election night or the ongoing count in the days that follow Only the election to the Riksdag counts. Seats won in the regional and municipal elections held the same day do NOT count A party awarded no seats cannot place 4th If a party not listed on this event is awarded the 4th-highest number of seats, every market on this event resolves NO In case of an exact tie for 4th place among multiple parties as certified by the election authority, the markets shall resolve to $1/(number of tied entities) rounded down.