Will the U.S. goods and services deficit for 2028 be above $500 billion?

If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2028 is strictly above $500 billion dollars, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis. It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data. Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit. For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion. Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2028. Subsequent annual revisions will not be considered.