Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 40 at the November 3, 2026 general election?

If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 40 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying districts are the 235 in which Trump received more votes than Harris in 2024, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections. That list is fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the 2024 vote totals do NOT add or remove districts. A district counts only if the candidate elected there is the nominee of the Democratic Party. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. A candidate elected as an independent or without a party nomination does NOT count, whether or not they caucus with the Democrats.