Will the U.S. goods trade deficit with China before January 1, 2027 be below $150B?

If the the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S. Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table. For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion. The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion. Data are nominal and not seasonally adjusted. Revisions published after the first annual 2026 value is released will not be considered.