Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Sep 1, 2026?

If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A "try to fire" includes any of the following: The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination; Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person; Publicly states (in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media) that he has fired or decided to fire the person; The White House officially announces termination; Sends written communication to the person informing them of termination; Initiates formal legal proceedings for removal The following do NOT qualify: Statements that the person "should" resign or be fired; Expressions of dissatisfaction; Asking or pressuring for voluntary resignation; Stating the President is "looking into" whether he can fire the person; Statements by other officials unless directed by the President; Unsent letters ordering termination This market resolves on the President's attempt to fire, not on whether such attempt is legally valid, successful, or results in the person leaving office.