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Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity?

Chance

12%

Buy Yes

13¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

89¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 4 minutes ago. Ends Jan 1, 4:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 5 hours agoBought no at 89¢$4
  • 23 hours agoBought no at 89¢$3
  • 23 hours agoBought no at 90¢$16
  • 23 hours agoBought no at 88¢$13
  • 23 hours agoBought no at 87¢$4
  • 23 hours agoBought no at 89¢$14
  • yesterdaySold yes at 17¢$17
  • yesterdaySold yes at 18¢$2
  • yesterdaySold yes at 17¢$4
How this market is decidedShow

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of any legal vehicle that primarily owns OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified.