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Will the U.S. federal government take a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan 20, 2029?

Chance

52%

Buy Yes

55¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

52¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Kalshi, updated 11 minutes ago. Ends Jan 20, 2:59 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share
How this market is decidedShow

If the U.S. federal government has taken a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified.