Will Caroline Shinkle receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-12 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Caroline Shinkle in the 2026 NY-12 House election is 20% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Caroline Shinkle ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Votes for Caroline Shinkle across all certified ballot lines are combined.