Will Paul Tonko receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 NY-20 House election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Paul Tonko in the 2026 NY-20 House election is 56% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Paul Tonko ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. Votes for Paul Tonko across all certified ballot lines are combined.