Will Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 8% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. The percentage is based on the first round of voting.