Will Dan S. Sullivan receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Dan S. Sullivan in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 48% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Dan S. Sullivan ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. The percentage is based on the first round of voting.