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PolymarketPolymarket· GDP · Macro Single · Economy · Macro Indicators

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Chance

2%

Buy Yes

2.1¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

98¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Polymarket, updated 25 minutes ago. Ends Jan 29, 12:00 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share
How this market is decidedShow

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.