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Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

Chance

24%

Buy Yes

32¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

84¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

as Polymarket reports it

Spread

16¢

round tripThin

Prices from Polymarket, updated 16 minutes ago. Ends Jan 1, 4:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Rules

How this market is decided
As Polymarket states them. Rules on Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes"). A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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