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Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?

Chance

85%

Buy Yes

86¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

16¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$968

as Polymarket reports it · 1 fills

Spread

2¢

round tripThin

Prices from Polymarket, updated 15 minutes ago. Ends Jan 1, 4:59 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 7 hours agoSold Yes at 83¢$7
  • 2 days agoSold Yes at 80.6¢$7
  • 2 days agoSold Yes at 81¢$1

Rules

How this market is decided
As Polymarket states them. Rules on Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead. For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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