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Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

Chance

58%

Buy Yes

59¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

43¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$139

as Polymarket reports it · 4 fills

Spread

2¢

round tripThin

Prices from Polymarket, updated 23 minutes ago. Ends Nov 3, 12:00 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Latest trades

  • 3 hours agoBought No at 43¢$9
  • 3 hours agoSold Yes at 57¢$11
  • 15 hours agoSold Yes at 58¢$12
  • 21 hours agoBought Yes at 59¢$6
  • yesterdaySold Yes at 58¢$8
  • 2 days agoSold Yes at 58¢$4
  • 3 days agoBought Yes at 59¢$34

Rules

How this market is decided
As Polymarket states them. Rules on Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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