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PolymarketPolymarket· GDP · Economy · Economic Policy · Recurring

Will US GDP growth in 2026 be greater than 2.5%?

Chance

20%

Buy Yes

24.6¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

84¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Prices from Polymarket, updated 10 minutes ago. Ends Jan 29, 12:00 AM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share

Related markets

Latest trades

  • yesterdaySold No at 80.8¢$24
  • yesterdayBought No at 78¢$16
  • yesterdaySold No at 82.9¢$66
  • yesterdaySold Yes at 15.8¢$24
  • yesterdayBought No at 83.1¢$17
  • yesterdaySold Yes at 18.2¢$20
  • yesterdaySold Yes at 21.1¢$4
  • yesterdaySold Yes at 18.3¢$4
  • yesterdaySold Yes at 23¢$8
  • yesterdaySold No at 74.4¢$15
How this market is decidedShow

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.