When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?
The date a reconciliation bill passes the Senate determines the outcome.
Kalshi$3 traded 24hEnds Aug 1, 2026Outcomes
Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | Last 24h | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 2% | — | 2¢ | |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 24% | — | 27¢ | |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 12% | — | 15¢ | |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 4% | — | 6¢ | |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | — | — | — | |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | — | — | — |
Before Oct 1, 2026
2%
—Yes price on Kalshi, last 2 weeks
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