Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?

The market resolves based on which coalition of political parties forms the next government in New Zealand.

PolymarketEnds Nov 6, 2026

Outcomes

Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted

Outcome	Chance	24h	Polymarket
National + ACT + NZF	43%	—	44¢
Labour + Green	21%	—	23.8¢
Labour + Green + Maori	19%	—	21¢
Other	9%	—	9.1¢
Labour + Maori	1%	—	2.2¢
Labour + Green + Maori + NZF	1%	—	0.9¢
National + ACT	1%	—	0.8¢
Labour + Green + NZF	1%	—	0.8¢
National + Labour	1%	—	0.9¢
National + Maori	1%	—	0.9¢
National + NZF	<1%	—	0.5¢
Labour	<1%	—	0.4¢
Labour + Maori + NZF	<1%	—	0.2¢
Labour + NZF	<1%	—	0.2¢
National	<1%	—	0.2¢
National + ACT + Maori	<1%	—	0.2¢
National + ACT + NZF + Maori	<1%	—	0.2¢
National + NZF + Maori	<1%	—	0.2¢

43%

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Yes price on Polymarket, last 2 weeks

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