Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?

The countries that send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31 determine the outcome.

Polymarket$10 traded 24hEnds Dec 31, 2026

Outcomes

Yes pays $1 if it happens · best price highlighted

Outcome	Chance	24h	Polymarket
US	25%	—	27¢
Australia	20%	—	34¢
Italy	18%	—	34¢
UK	12%	—	19¢
Greece	11%	—	18.9¢
Germany	9%	—	12¢
France	8%	—	12¢
Netherlands	5%	—	6¢

25%

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Yes price on Polymarket, last 2 weeks

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