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Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.00% by Jan 1, 2027?

Pays out if the result is above 5.

Chance

94%

Buy Yes

98¢

pays $1 if it happens

Buy No

10¢

pays $1 if it doesn’t

Vol 24h

$100

as Kalshi reports it · 1 fills

Spread

8¢

round tripThin

Prices from Kalshi, updated 5 minutes ago. Ends Jan 1, 3:00 PM UTC.

Price over the last 2 weeks
Cost of a Yes share
Order book
Top five levels, polled · updated 1 minute ago

Buy Yes (bids)

  • 90¢100$90
  • 85¢636$541
  • 80¢180$144
  • 66¢168$111
  • 49¢1,190$583

Sell Yes (asks)

  • 98¢1,974$1.9K
  • 99¢1,275$1.3K
Spread
8¢
Mid
94¢
Microprice
90.4¢
Within 5¢
$631 · $52
More money on NoImbalance +85%More money on Yes

Latest trades

  • 3 hours agoSold yes at 92¢$92

Rules

How this market is decided
Settled by U.S. Department of the Treasury. Contract terms (PDF)

If the daily published par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.00% on any business day between Sep 17, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This market covers the period between Sep 17, 2026 and Jan 1, 2027. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.

Rule history

  1. First recordedNo changes since.

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