Will the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment be above 5 from February 2026 to February 2027?

If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 5% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollment, based on the exact figures reported under CMS’s nationwide “All” Marketplace category, or its equivalent aggregate combining HealthCare.gov and state-based Marketplaces, in CMS’s first official or non-preliminary release containing February 2027 data. Nationwide includes the 50 states and Washington, D.C.